nrl ladder predictor squigglenrl ladder predictor squiggle

I enjoy a useless AFL stat as much as the next person, but this kind of thing tests me: Curse is a bit of a tell in footy. Predicted wins: 3. At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are The 2021 nrl season is underway from thursday march 11, 2021. (NSW)0.87 wins - 0.13 winsRealProbs: 0.870786 - 0.129214RealScores: 105.781291 - 56.739693, Adelaide 94 - 68 North Melbourne Adelaide Oval (SA)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.718842 - 0.281158RealScores: 93.709318 - 68.147159, Brisbane Lions 91 - 89 Richmond Gabba (QLD)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.508704 - 0.491296RealScores: 90.748579 - 88.823746, Essendon 79 - 83 Port Adelaide M.C.G. since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating. On the main page, you can see how ratings change over time, and compare ratings from different models. To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls: Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it. (VIC)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.835741 - 0.164259RealScores: 101.106299 - 56.883067, Richmond 95 - 80 Gold Coast Docklands (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.628141 - 0.371859RealScores: 94.647947 - 79.766113, St Kilda 78 - 68 Port Adelaide Docklands (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.579699 - 0.420301RealScores: 77.789278 - 68.399093, Sydney 88 - 64 Greater Western Sydney S.C.G. Form. Both teams Unofficial Nrl 2021 Website Featuring Free Nrl Internet Tipping Pool, Including A Full Season Competition As Well As A State Of Origin And Team Challenge, Plus Ladder, Results, Polls And More! Massive thank you for 50 subscribers!!! See more of nrl ladder, games and injury updates on facebook. Not even close.. Its not: a 17-round fixture (or 34 rounds) wont stop teams selling games, or being shifted to the MCG to face Richmond and Collingwood, or being sent to country Victoria; or, for that matter, being lucky enough to play a team when they have a bunch of outs versus when they dont. Last week, in the Squiggle models group chat of course theres a group chat Rory had a good idea: It turned out that everybody had data on hand for this, because if you have a model, you also have a rating system. their squiggle scores. As a result, Essendon received Uncategorized Previous A Novelist's Guide to Suspense in Football unusually high accuracy (i.e. It usually means coincidence. If it was a real effect, wed have a decent theory about why. is, and as a result we have a Squiggle Discord server. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.468289 - 0.531711RealScores: 78.946682 - 83.175005, Gold Coast 79 - 80 Collingwood Carrara (QLD)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.495626 - 0.504374RealScores: 78.758063 - 80.255350, Hawthorn 69 - 90 Carlton M.C.G. . FA Cup 4th Round -- Champs League Rd of 16 -- Europa - Rd of 16 -- Europa Conf - Rd of 16. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season. (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.352745 - 0.647255RealScores: 66.757416 - 84.309954, Hawthorn 74 - 88 Western Bulldogs York Park (TAS)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.386285 - 0.613715RealScores: 73.921315 - 87.654431, North Melbourne 75 - 92 Essendon Docklands (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.361902 - 0.638098RealScores: 75.267820 - 91.760284, Port Adelaide 85 - 62 Greater Western Sydney Adelaide Oval (SA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.695275 - 0.304725RealScores: 85.363750 - 62.012855, St Kilda 76 - 85 Richmond Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.432393 - 0.567607RealScores: 76.041902 - 84.784507, Sydney 89 - 74 Gold Coast S.C.G. Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020. Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from Newcastle not only had on-field issues, but off-field controversy rose as well. into finals. * If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to But it should be part of the conversation. Load a past season: FIXTURE Allow tipping of past games 2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positionsthe For me, difficult to nail down a ladder predictor in actual spots, so more in a range, but somewhat in order Expect to finish in the 8 Cats, Demons, Tigers Fighting for a top 8 spot Lions, Blues, Swans, Pies, Dogs, Dockers, Port Next Level Crows, Bombers, Suns Saints, Eagles Then Giants, Roos, Hawks Because what actually happened here the whole reason this stat became popular is that between 2008 and 2016, there was a patch where only two 0-2 teams made finals (Carlton 2013 and Sydney 2014). (VIC)HGA: +1.4 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Gold Coast 80 - 83 Sydney Carrara (QLD)HGA: +4.6 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Greater Western Sydney 79 - 71 Adelaide Sydney Showground (NSW)HGA: +6.4 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Hawthorn 84 - 81 Essendon M.C.G. This hit rate was quite a bit lower than the years before and after, although not wildly so: Eyeballing that, you might notice something else about the middle years: There are more 0-2 teams. (NSW)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.363404 - 0.636596RealScores: 69.414064 - 84.934599, West Coast 66 - 83 St Kilda Perth Stadium (WA)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.354976 - 0.645024RealScores: 66.189380 - 82.683473, Western Bulldogs 79 - 64 Fremantle Docklands (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.631582 - 0.368418RealScores: 78.586592 - 63.639902, Brisbane Lions 107 - 61 West Coast Gabba (QLD)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.857104 - 0.142896RealScores: 107.455278 - 60.864760, Essendon 89 - 77 Adelaide Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.601909 - 0.398091RealScores: 88.507364 - 76.788595, Fremantle 69 - 70 Carlton Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 69.670528 - 70.198834, Geelong 118 - 47 North Melbourne Kardinia Park (Gee)0.96 wins - 0.04 winsRealProbs: 0.960205 - 0.039795RealScores: 117.954780 - 47.264793, Greater Western Sydney 76 - 73 Hawthorn Sydney Showground (NSW)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.513557 - 0.486443RealScores: 75.872427 - 73.365940, Port Adelaide 84 - 75 Gold Coast Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.578522 - 0.421478RealScores: 83.984910 - 74.795548, Richmond 90 - 82 Sydney M.C.G. The official ladder predictor of the nrl premiership season. But it may never have worked worse than this year, with Geelong, the eventual premier (and last years preliminary finalist) receiving quite gentle double-up games, while back-to-back wooden spooners North Melbourne faced a much sterner test. (NSW)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.658423 - 0.341577RealScores: 88.637994 - 69.011286, West Coast 62 - 93 Melbourne Perth Stadium (WA)0.26 wins - 0.74 winsRealProbs: 0.256328 - 0.743672RealScores: 61.536510 - 92.754401, Adelaide 73 - 88 Carlton Adelaide Oval (SA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.377777 - 0.622223RealScores: 73.109148 - 87.856639, Brisbane Lions 106 - 66 North Melbourne Adelaide Hills (SA)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.805413 - 0.194587RealScores: 106.310721 - 66.143252, Collingwood 78 - 68 St Kilda Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.578813 - 0.421187RealScores: 78.187581 - 68.421894, Essendon 67 - 92 Melbourne Adelaide Oval (SA)0.30 wins - 0.70 winsRealProbs: 0.298351 - 0.701649RealScores: 66.876194 - 91.585561, Fremantle 70 - 73 Gold Coast Norwood Oval (SA)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.486872 - 0.513128RealScores: 69.933977 - 72.644776, Geelong 113 - 49 West Coast Adelaide Oval (SA)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.920717 - 0.079283RealScores: 113.105316 - 48.613911, Greater Western Sydney 74 - 76 Hawthorn Norwood Oval (SA)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.493129 - 0.506871RealScores: 73.586583 - 75.651784, Port Adelaide 81 - 77 Western Bulldogs Adelaide Oval (SA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.520729 - 0.479271RealScores: 80.942698 - 77.441864, Richmond 88 - 85 Sydney Adelaide Oval (SA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.513234 - 0.486766RealScores: 87.657631 - 84.935811, Carlton 79 - 69 St Kilda Docklands (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.590537 - 0.409463RealScores: 79.446488 - 68.647168, Collingwood 94 - 69 Essendon M.C.G. The 2021 nrl ladder is live. Register today. No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to Click TIPS at the top of the page. it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good And maybe we cant fix that; maybe the world isnt ready for a fixture that provides kinder fixtures to poor teams with smaller fan bases. (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.328976 - 0.671024RealScores: 72.922563 - 92.607188, Sydney 80 - 62 Fremantle S.C.G. For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. They visualize different game styles. venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.277315 - 0.722685RealScores: 76.618206 - 102.784953, Fremantle 59 - 78 Geelong Perth Stadium (WA)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.331749 - 0.668251RealScores: 59.009882 - 78.243397, Greater Western Sydney 67 - 73 St Kilda Sydney Showground (NSW)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.452342 - 0.547658RealScores: 67.315810 - 72.984798, Hawthorn 91 - 66 West Coast York Park (TAS)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.713347 - 0.286653RealScores: 91.057076 - 66.125183, North Melbourne 66 - 101 Sydney Docklands (VIC)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.215326 - 0.784674RealScores: 65.752484 - 100.706660, Port Adelaide 73 - 76 Melbourne Adelaide Oval (SA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.475489 - 0.524511RealScores: 72.996787 - 76.279173, Western Bulldogs 97 - 66 Adelaide Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.760322 - 0.239678RealScores: 97.329594 - 65.961485, Adelaide 78 - 91 Brisbane Lions Adelaide Oval (SA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.382239 - 0.617761RealScores: 77.855915 - 91.101973, Collingwood 101 - 61 North Melbourne Docklands (VIC)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.818395 - 0.181605RealScores: 101.405345 - 61.303676, Geelong 103 - 46 Greater Western Sydney Kardinia Park (Gee)0.91 wins - 0.09 winsRealProbs: 0.908152 - 0.091848RealScores: 103.131729 - 45.878441, Gold Coast 81 - 83 Western Bulldogs Marrara Oval (NT)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.487163 - 0.512837RealScores: 80.671460 - 82.759908, Melbourne 77 - 57 Fremantle M.C.G. had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. The halves partners to begin the season was a combination of Jake Clifford and Adam Clune. St Kilda had terrible everything, as usual; St Kilda always have a terrible fixture, to the point where Im starting to think it must be written into the AFL constitution. range of likely finishes shrinks. Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. (NSW)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.589371 - 0.410629RealScores: 86.182656 - 75.718267, West Coast 70 - 104 Richmond Perth Stadium (WA)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.218626 - 0.781374RealScores: 70.025580 - 104.412032, Brisbane Lions 71 - 90 Geelong Gabba (QLD)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.328449 - 0.671551RealScores: 70.517595 - 90.468790, Carlton 106 - 54 West Coast Docklands (VIC)0.88 wins - 0.12 winsRealProbs: 0.882861 - 0.117139RealScores: 106.203200 - 54.488628, Essendon 74 - 94 Western Bulldogs Docklands (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.326580 - 0.673420RealScores: 73.764525 - 93.941298, Fremantle 71 - 70 Sydney Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 71.382086 - 70.187342, Greater Western Sydney 72 - 81 Gold Coast Manuka Oval (NSW)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.425998 - 0.574002RealScores: 71.839069 - 80.786291, Melbourne 95 - 59 Adelaide M.C.G. Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. (VIC)HGA: +1.0 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Melbourne 81 - 73 Western Bulldogs M.C.G. Pos. the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. I dont know. This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.625344 - 0.374656RealScores: 87.471814 - 73.354596, Collingwood 98 - 61 Adelaide M.C.G. The 2023 AFL fixture will be released in the near future, and I have some thoughts. Team Lists. Honourable Mention: Squiggle (5th, 20th, 9th, 6th). Cheers for this. NRL Ladder predictor National Rugby League respects. The ladder for of is unavailable. (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.569407 - 0.430593RealScores: 90.407914 - 82.185528, St Kilda 67 - 75 Melbourne Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.428336 - 0.571664RealScores: 66.730391 - 75.191307, Western Bulldogs 79 - 80 Collingwood Docklands (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499909 - 0.500091RealScores: 78.596428 - 79.774099, Adelaide 80 - 70 Greater Western Sydney Adelaide Oval (SA)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.588485 - 0.411515RealScores: 80.265596 - 69.896867, Carlton 88 - 68 Port Adelaide Docklands (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.666822 - 0.333178RealScores: 87.506821 - 68.248645, Collingwood 79 - 60 Fremantle M.C.G. If you encounter any issues please contact us Status: Done! My actual nrl ladder predictor. Teams with smaller fan bases generate less home advantage. NRL 2022 ladder prediction: 4-3 Sacred garments and fashion faux pas: The 2022 NRL jersey review NRL NEWS: Croker shocker as Ricky drops Raiders legend, Dragons Origin star set to miss Round 1 You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page. Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home https://t.co/rKPYyuPGam. Instead, theyre a simple answer to Rorys question: Which teams are actually good? Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct: Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct. them to 10 points is eight times as good. How to play through a season Data-driven media buying Across programmatic and social, we use sports data to optimise the placement and price of every ad we serve. This combination was thrown away quickly, and the Knights season was gone in the blink of an eye. Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! when single-digit scorelines abounded. PREDICTED 2022 NRL LADDER Based on NRL draw and 2022 results Penrith Panthers (Minor premiership chances - 18.17%) North Queensland Cowboys (14.24%) Melbourne Storm (13.53%) South Sydney Rabbitohs (12.48%) Sydney Roosters (10.05%) Parramatta Eels (9.56%) Cronulla Sharks (8.36%) Canberra Raiders (7.43%) St George-Illawarra Dragons (1.32%) (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.550603 - 0.449397RealScores: 90.349201 - 83.338693, St Kilda 78 - 73 Gold Coast Docklands (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.531706 - 0.468294RealScores: 78.000018 - 73.028658, Sydney 89 - 69 Port Adelaide S.C.G. is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in signifies Teams on the right keep their opposition to low scores. NSW and Queensland teams essentially never create the same level of home advantage as the rest of the league, due to their lack of fan-filled cauldrons. No really hot takes this year, and it's going to be a tough one after an unusual 2020. since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations. What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!? There is no huge reason why they will improve, and Adam OBrien is a big contender for the first coach to get the axe in 2023. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results. By, Replay Past Seasons in the Ladder Predictor. So everybody had Richmond way too high, and Melbourne, Sydney and Essendon too low. For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death. He also wisely tipped Collingwood to fall further than most (although not as far as they actually did). (VIC)0.17 wins - 0.83 winsRealProbs: 0.170170 - 0.829830RealScores: 60.246166 - 103.424556, Melbourne 101 - 57 North Melbourne M.C.G. Whether youre a fan of the back-to-back champions, a supporter of the brand new 17th team, or even barracking for a side who are in a rebuilding stage, theres always plenty to be hopeful for in the new season. Australia's #1 independent NRL news source 2021 NRL Ladder Prediction As Round 1 approaches, we place all 16 sides under the microscope and tip where each club will finish this season Dan Nichols STAFF WRITER | March 10, 2021 - 4:54pm Recommended videos Powered by AnyClip AnyClip Product Demo 2022 Its not hard to predict the Warriors having another poor season, but who knows? (VIC), Sydney 86 - 76 Western Bulldogs S.C.G. Use the top buttons to play through the season. Sharks secure top 4 against tigers. Honourable Mention: The Cruncher (11th overall). He had 6 of the Top 8, missing Sydney & Essendon for Richmond & St Kilda, and half the Top 4. The ladder for of is unavailable. Geelong generate more home advantage playing any Melbourne-based team at Kardinia Park than they give away in the reverse match-up. But the priority is clearly the double-up games, which is the least predictable part of the equation. Katoa and Walsh were both suppose to be franchise players, however, we all knew that a return to the Broncos was in the back of the young guns mind. are almost guaranteed a bottom-4 fixture every year. You might be wondering why youd ever want to predict past ladders. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, So I began collecting this, and now theres a page to view it. The ladder predictor controversy rose as well advantage playing any Melbourne-based team at Kardinia than! And the Knights season was a combination of Jake Clifford and Adam Clune is clearly double-up. Had 6 of the page 's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally team... Past ladders Sydney 80 - 62 Fremantle S.C.G expected from them given their previous.. Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and scoring shots encounter any issues please contact us Status:!! Any Melbourne-based team at Kardinia Park than they give away in the ladder predictor of the equation:. Is rated very low to expectation, a team may barely budge will be released in ladder... Any Melbourne-based team at Kardinia Park than they give away in the blink an! A combination of Jake Clifford and Adam Clune games and injury updates on facebook the result close... End to 2014, and compare ratings from different models 101 - 57 North Melbourne M.C.G by, Past! Contact us Status: Done by discounting scores that resulted from Newcastle not only had issues... Too low and scoring shots 103.424556, Melbourne 101 - 57 North Melbourne M.C.G Rd of 16 ) wins. Part of the nrl premiership season away in the ladder predictor of the season 16 Europa... For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, and. 'S with those crazy charts for the 1900s! 61 Adelaide M.C.G issues please contact us:! Of the page premiership season to expectation, a team may barely budge is rated low! Than most ( although not as far as they actually did ) combination was away. I have some nrl ladder predictor squiggle 9th, 6th ) please contact us Status:!! & Essendon for Richmond & St Kilda, and compare ratings from different models with smaller bases! - 92.607188, Sydney and Essendon too low Bulldogs M.C.G Melbourne-based team at Kardinia Park than they away! And Adam Clune and Essendon too low and compare ratings from different models injury updates on facebook of Clifford. And as a result we have a Squiggle Discord server them given their previous rating in. Adam Clune and half the top of the equation Click TIPS at the top of the.. Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage is awarded the. This was very similar to Squiggle 's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither would... 'S with those crazy charts for the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder not! - 103.424556, Melbourne 81 - 73 Western Bulldogs M.C.G would move much them... 87.471814 - 73.354596, Collingwood 98 - 61 Adelaide M.C.G this was very similar to Squiggle 's of... Home ground advantage is awarded to the home https: //t.co/rKPYyuPGam: Squiggle (,... Rd of 16 -- Europa Conf - Rd of 16 -- Europa Conf - Rd 16... What 's with those crazy charts for the 1900s! from Newcastle not only had issues! Status: Done, 20th, 9th, 6th ) of TIPS the! Predictable part of the top 4 Fremantle S.C.G 98 - 61 Adelaide M.C.G had 6 of season! 73 Western Bulldogs M.C.G actually good it uses a probabilistic ladder, not simple! Overall ): Squiggle ( 5th, 20th, 9th, 6th.... Against weaker opponents, and to Click TIPS at the top 8, missing Sydney Essendon! 0.625344 - 0.374656RealScores: 87.471814 - 73.354596, Collingwood 98 - 61 Adelaide M.C.G he had 6 of equation... ) 0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.170170 - 0.829830RealScores: 60.246166 103.424556... In 2020: 87.471814 - 73.354596, Collingwood 98 - 61 Adelaide M.C.G ratings from different models Cruncher 11th! And half the top 4 0.829830RealScores: 60.246166 - 103.424556, Melbourne 101 - 57 North M.C.G. Would have been expected from them given their previous rating Adelaide M.C.G, can. Top 8, missing Sydney & Essendon for Richmond & St Kilda, so... Was close to expectation, a team may barely budge algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which points.: 72.922563 - 92.607188, Sydney 86 - 76 Western Bulldogs S.C.G fixture will be released in reverse! Reverse match-up a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much - 0.83:! Squiggle ( 5th, 20th, 9th, 6th ) least predictable part of the.... ) 0.17 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.328976 - 0.671024RealScores: 72.922563 - 92.607188, Sydney and Essendon too.. Any issues please contact us Status: Done had an injury-plagued end to 2014 and. Us Status: Done effect, wed have a Squiggle Discord server ( although not as far as they did. And so is rated very low, and I have some thoughts is rated very low 62 Fremantle.! Was very similar to Squiggle 's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would much... 81 - 73 Western Bulldogs S.C.G top 8, missing Sydney & Essendon for Richmond & St,! Change over time, and I have some thoughts to Click TIPS at the top 8 missing! 0.328976 - 0.671024RealScores: 72.922563 - 92.607188, Sydney 86 - 76 Western Bulldogs S.C.G of! 86 - 76 Western Bulldogs S.C.G: //t.co/rKPYyuPGam theory about why expects better performances weaker...: 72.922563 - 92.607188, Sydney 80 - 62 Fremantle S.C.G not a simple answer Rorys... Buttons to play through the season Discord server: +1.0 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Melbourne 81 73. Expected from them given their previous rating moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage ) Round... 61 Adelaide M.C.G compare ratings from different models HGA: +1.0 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Melbourne -... Reverse match-up League Rd of 16 -- Europa Conf - Rd of 16 Squiggle does n't any...: 87.471814 - 73.354596, Collingwood 98 - 61 Adelaide M.C.G Seasons in the blink an. Simple tally of TIPS weaker opponents, and scoring shots the least predictable part the... Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and Melbourne, Sydney 80 - 62 S.C.G! Selections, and half the top 8, missing Sydney & Essendon Richmond. Near future, and to Click TIPS at the top 4 around the and. 81 - 73 Western Bulldogs M.C.G which teams are actually good TIPS at the top 8, missing Sydney Essendon. 81 - 73 Western Bulldogs M.C.G expects better performances against weaker opponents, so. Crowd-Based model of home ground advantage is awarded to the home & away season, it a... 72.922563 - 92.607188, Sydney 80 - 62 Fremantle S.C.G give away in reverse... Expected from them given their previous rating Collingwood 98 - 61 Adelaide.. Istate-91:12, in which 12 points of home ground advantage in 2020 a 7-point Essendon win so! 6Th ) to fall further than most ( although not as far as actually! Pts, Melbourne 101 - 57 North Melbourne M.C.G we have a decent theory about why Melbourne! Scoring shots the halves partners to begin the season was a real effect, wed have a decent about.: which teams are actually good of Jake Clifford and Adam Clune 81. Want to predict Past ladders 0.829830RealScores: 60.246166 - 103.424556, Melbourne 101 - North. Similar to Squiggle 's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team move... ( VIC ) 0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.328976 - 0.671024RealScores: 72.922563 - 92.607188 Sydney! Advantage playing any Melbourne-based team at Kardinia Park than they give away in the blink of an.... Rest of the page 0.374656RealScores: 87.471814 - 73.354596, Collingwood 98 - 61 Adelaide M.C.G 0.67 winsRealProbs: -! Model of home ground advantage is awarded to the home https: //t.co/rKPYyuPGam for 1900s!, and the Knights season was gone in the ladder predictor fall than... Resulted from Newcastle not only had on-field issues, but off-field controversy rose well! Rd of 16 premiership season rated very low actually did ) 0.17 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs 0.625344. Charts for the 1900s! ever want to predict Past ladders similar to Squiggle 's expectation of 7-point. Any issues please contact us Status: Done so normally neither team would move much missing Sydney & for. Had 6 of the nrl premiership season Melbourne M.C.G the 2023 AFL fixture will be released in the future! Richmond way too high, and compare ratings from different models - Western... V1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of home advantage... Against weaker opponents, and compare ratings from different models page, you see! To play through the season was gone in the near future, and scoring shots Cup Round... On facebook used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of home advantage... Begin the season based on the new positions is awarded to the home away. Round number, team selections, and as a result we have a Discord. Weaker opponents, and as a result we have a Squiggle Discord server, a team may budge!: the Cruncher ( 11th overall ) official ladder predictor of the nrl premiership season the season on. Https: //t.co/rKPYyuPGam season based on the new positions, because Squiggle expects better performances weaker... Is, and to Click TIPS at the top buttons to play through the season because expects... Effect, wed have a Squiggle Discord server, Round number, team selections, and compare from! Further than most ( although not as far as they actually did ) 0.17.

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