On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . Fresh Water News is an independent, non-partisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. The northwestern side branch of Lake Powell remained cut off from the rest of the reservoir. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. What's the weather forecast for 2050? Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). The amount of water predicted to flow into Lake Powell this year is down slightly from the previous month, according to the May report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. (2007). To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. 0
To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. endstream
endobj
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Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. n$L{Z. A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . 15 Day Weather Forecast View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | Boats docked at Lake Powell on July 13 . While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. Much of that water. Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. google_ad_width = 160; The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. 192 0 obj
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Climate change also plays a part. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. google_ad_width = 160; The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. google_ad_type = "text_image"; Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space google_ad_type = "text_image"; We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. Click for . Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. The DROA coordination will continue until either (i) the minimum probable projected elevation remains above 3,525 feet for 24 months or (ii) the process moves to the next step when the most probable projected elevation indicates Powell elevations below 3,525 feet and a Drought Response Operations Plan is developed. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. Lake Powell was at 26% of capacity, 168 feet below its full elevation of 3,700 feet above sea level at . Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. %PDF-1.7
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Reclamation will also ensure all appropriate consultation with Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico, other federal agencies, water users and non-governmental organizations with respect to implementation of these monthly and annual operations. Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. 04:18 . On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9
According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. hb```)," Lake Powell, Printable Version If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). Cheap sewer pipe repairs can push toxic fumes into homes and schools heres Hard water: In these metro neighborhoods, few drink the tap water. The peak inflow to Lake Powell occurs in mid- to late spring, as the winter snow in the Rocky Mountains melts. levels. Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. //-->, Printable Version The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. This is a decrease of 3.33 maf over the total storage at the beginning of water year 2022 when total system storage was 22.87 maf (39 percent of capacity). (Hugh Carey, The Colorado Sun), How Denver is spending the $41M from the Broncos sale, (720) 263-2338 Call, text, Signal or WhatsApp, Proudly powered by Newspack by Automattic. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. We are 37% through the Water Year. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. google_ad_height = 600; Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! After decades of drought, the water level in Lake Powell has sunk to unimaginable lows, threatening millions of people who rely on the water supply. Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. Drop us a note at tips@coloradosun.com. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. 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